Crude Oil’s Geopolitical Risk Premium: From \ Surplus to \ Catastrophe Scenarios
$60 Surplus to $140 Catastrophe Scenarios Before the February 2026 Iran strikes, Brent crude was forecast to average $60–$64 per barrel on structural oversupply of 0.8–3.5 million barrels per day. Within hours of the first bombs falling, Brent surged past $72.48 to an eight-month
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