Private credit has grown from $875 billion to $1.7 trillion since 2020, capturing 86% of US middle-market lending from banks.Yields of 11.2% on senior secured direct lending significantly exceed public alternatives, though with illiquidity and concentration risks.Overcrowding is driving down standards — leverage multiples
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BOJ's rate normalization from -0.10% to 0.50% is the most significant monetary policy shift since Japan's asset bubble burst in 1990.An estimated $550-660 billion in carry trade positions remain outstanding, creating ongoing yen appreciation pressure with each BOJ hike.Japanese repatriation of $4.1 trillion in
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The yield curve un-inversion, not the inversion itself, is the phase historically associated with recession onset — we're currently in that window.PMI data shows a decelerating but not collapsing economy, with services offsetting manufacturing weakness.Leading indicators have been declining for 23 consecutive months, matching
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Regulation is legitimising crypto: MiCA, spot ETFs, and stablecoin rules bring institutional clarity.Bitcoin/Ethereum are institutional-grade: $68B ETF AUM validates BTC; ETH following via spot ETFs.Stablecoins are the regulatory frontier: $210B market under scrutiny; Tether’s reserve opacity is the biggest risk.The regulatory inflection pointFor most
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AI capex supercycle is real: $340B hyperscaler investment in 2025, growing 20%+ in 2026.Value chain analysis matters: TSMC, ASML, SK Hynix, Broadcom benefit alongside Nvidia.Cyclicality risk is rising: Deceleration from 23% to 8-12% growth would compress 37x SOX P/E.The semiconductor supercycle thesisThe global semiconductor
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$4.2T market is now mainstream: 6.2% of global bond issuance, up from 0.5% in 2015.EU GBS raises the bar: Mandatory taxonomy alignment and external review from Dec 2025.Greenium is real but small: 2bps secondary, 5-8bps primary. Not material for return-seeking investors.Evolution of the green
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