Central banks are the new marginal buyer: 1,136 tonnes purchased in 2025, replacing Western institutions as price-setters.Supply deficit structural: 3,600t mine output vs 5,000t+ total demand; deficit met by ETF drawdowns.From hedge to core: Gold’s 3-year Sharpe ratio (1.42) now exceeds both equities and
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Structural not cyclical: The India-China divergence is driven by demographics and governance, not business cycles.Portfolio rebalancing is self-reinforcing: EM fund weights converging to 22% China, 20% India from 38%/8% in 2020.China contrarian play is risky: CSI 300 at 11x looks cheap, but structural capital
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Cheap on historical basis: PSEi at 12.5x vs 10-year avg of 17.8x; 30% discount.Rate cut timing is everything: BSP holds at 6% until CPI drops below 4%; market expects 75bps cuts.OFW remittances underpin: $39B in 2025 remittances support peso, housing, and consumption.The PSEi’s 2026
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Income over growth: FTSE 100 yield of 3.8% drives systematic volume through dividend reinvestment.Barclays IB recovery: Fixed-income trading revenue up 19%; Goldman rates stock undervalued.UK value gap: FTSE 100 at 11x forward P/E vs 21x for S&P 500, a 45% discount.London’s volume kingsIn any
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Semiconductor reshoring: $52B joint investment to put 30% of leading-edge chip capacity outside East Asia by 2028.Governance revolution: Record $85B buybacks as TSE Prime companies adopt US-style capital efficiency.Digital trade norms: US-Japan DTA sets de facto global rules bypassing stalled WTO negotiations.A strategic convergence
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Green premium is real: 22% higher rents for BREEAM/LEED certified buildings.ECB cuts unlock capital: €47B Q1 2026 CRE investment, up 34% YoY.Core-plus strategy: Retrofit B-rated buildings in prime locations for 4-year payback.The ECB pivot unlocks European property marketsEuropean commercial real estate (CRE) investment volumes
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Reform-driven rally: SSE up 12.7% YTD on mandatory dividends and governance reforms.STAR Market surge: China's tech board up 24.3%, cheaper than Nasdaq at 22x forward P/E.Global capital returning: $680B northbound Stock Connect in 6 weeks signals institutional confidence.A reform-driven rally in ShanghaiThe Shanghai Stock
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20.5pp gap: Widest Dow-Nasdaq divergence since 2000.AI earnings are real: Nasdaq P/E of 32x vs 60x in 2000, backed by actual profits.Barbell strategy: Pair mega-cap tech with short-duration bonds for ballast.The great American index splitFor more than a decade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
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